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The approach to consumer manipulation is indeed very different for CPA than CPC. But affliate marketing is an entire industry that has been built up around "publishers" who drive traffic to sites they don't always control where they only get paid if someone buys, signs up, etc. What's new here is Google muscling into the game, and the incredible network effects that Google can bring to bear.
CPA requires a lot more infrastructure from the advertiser as well (to report conversion.) Is verification done via pixel tracking on the advertiser's confirmation screen? I obviously need to look into it further.
You're wrong - there will be more marketing, but avoiding it will always be an option, just as it is now. If one web entity forces too many advertisements on me, I'll go where I can get the same content without the ads. And if there's a need for content with cut down advertising, there will be someone who's more than willing to provide the service.
However, I don't remember there being very many small sites maintained by a full-time publisher who creates high quality niche content. That's a reality now. Adsense made that possible.
Also I don't remember there being very many small shops who were able to compete and get noticed inbetween the big boys online. Adwords made that possible.
Hashim, you're right that AdSense has definitely been a positive force. I'm focusing more on the (largely) intended consequences of these systems.
http://blog.mymindshare.com/2007/03/charting_th...
Mindshare is valuable. Consumers possess it and advertisers pay billions of dollars to get it, but not one dollar changes hands between advertiser and consumer. Instead, mindshare is captured by Media then sold and resold, without a penny of compensation to the owner of mindshare.
Consumers are excluded from the mindshare marketplace. At best, they are party to an unwritten and un-negotiated contract in which they trade mindshare for ad-supported programming. At worst, consumers are subjected to outright theft as mind and media are polluted with irrelevant, unwanted, unsolicited and uncompensated advertising.
There's been tons of direct response marketing online already, most notably after the dot com bust when online ad markets dissappeared. And even those people ae finding that hard-sell manipulation is less effective.
I think the trend towards relationship/trust marketing will continue, because it's the only thing that seems to be working. But even trust can't sell a truly crappy product, or, at least not for long.
There's already a million affiliate and CPA programs on the web for people to choose from. I don't see why Google putting their name on one will change what works and what doesn't as far as techniques go.
AdSense was revolutionary, CPA is not at this point. Google is showing up late to the CPA party, and although they'll make big money, it won't drastically change anything.
>There’s already a million affiliate and CPA programs on the web for people to choose from. I don’t see why Google putting their name on one will change what works and what doesn’t as far as techniques go.
I think it is the scale and targeting which is the issue. Think of the Google recommended items for you widget...then think of something similar telling you WHAT to recommend, then allowing you to look through how other people are recommending it.
Everyone becomes a direct marketer.
On a more serious note, didn't Amazon pioneer this like 10 years ago with their associates program? CPA advertising isn't new - Google might spur more people towards using it, but I don't think the web is going to be any different as a result.
I've been saying that this is inevitable over here for a year. :)
I guess this does up the scale of how online direct marketing already works. Everyone in DM looks at what works and emulates it; now it's democratized.
So, scale is an issue. But WHAT WORKS will remain the same. So I guess the real lament here is that worthless advertising that doesn't work will disappear--and that's bad, because the audience prefers advertising that doesn't work?
From a publishing standpoint, the most interesting thing to watch is how much we'll see content become the ad itself. The real manipulation occurs when people don't realize they are being marketed to, but again, it's very difficult to successfully sell worthless crap these days, not matter how effective the copy.
Haha, now that's funny stuff.
Brian said...
Tell that to about a million "info product" marketers who's sales pages convert way higher than most people think they do, consistently!
http://www.nutskulls.com/2007/03/22/google-cpa-...
Give it some time to read The Reasons with facts that makes you believe it
I understand that market very well, Jim. When selling information, the copy is more important than the product. :)
And yet what I said is still true... it's getting harder to sell crap consistently when the word spreads as fast as it does now. Plus, successful direct marketers make money by selling more stuff to the same people they've already sold to, and therefore need to satisfy the quality demands of the audience to be profitable over time.
The problem with the Google model (and CPA in general) is that the publisher doesn't own the relationship, and therefore has less incentive to play nice. That's why sellers need to become content developers too, and cut out the middleman to a certain degree.